47630 Van Dyke Ave Denwood Ave

Shelby, MI 48312

$84,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$260
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $153/mo
• Annual: $1,837/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wiley Elementary School (math 35% / reading 48%, grade F, #581 of 1,397 statewide, top 42%, 510 students, 46% FRL); Utica High School (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #185 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 1,368 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 26% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.4% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown areas and some bare patches in the landscaping.