636 Harpeth Bend Dr

Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37221

$390,000D+

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,159 sqft · Built 1965 · MultiFamily · Pending · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$600
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $86/mo
• Annual: $1,037/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $43/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harpeth Valley Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #119 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 607 students, 0% FRL); Hillsboro High (math 2% / reading 33%, grade F, #214 of 332 statewide, top 64%, 1,227 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Davidson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $390k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?