636 Harpeth Bend Dr · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37221

$390,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,159 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1965 0.38 ac lot Est $628k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Back on the Market !!! This Duplex features 2 Bedrooms, and 1.5 Bathrooms, Appliances, washer/dryer connections, large backyard with privacy fence & deck. The units are tenant occupied, do not disturb tenants. Call the office to discuss details & offers. Excellent tenants with leases that expire 03/31/2026, Current Leases remain in effect and follow the sale.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Privacy fence
• Deck

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• DECK

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $390,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$628,269) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $43/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harpeth Valley Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #119 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 607 students, 0% FRL); Hillsboro High (math 2% / reading 33%, grade F, #214 of 332 statewide, top 64%, 1,227 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Davidson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $390k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $628,269
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
618 Harpeth Bend Dr	0.15mi	5/— (-1)	1,958 (-9%)	9mo	$570,000	$291	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-62,338
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-65,747
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37221

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 18.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,458 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$371 /mo · $4,455/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,349

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 92%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2.0	1.5	$3,458
Total (2 units)			$3,458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-30
   status Active
3. 2025-12-12
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-02
   price $390,000
5. 2025-06-27
   listed $490,000 Active
6. 2024-11-25
   historical
7. 2024-06-26
   listed $535,000 Active
8. 2013-12-02
   historical
9. 2013-09-02
   historical
10. 2013-09-02
    listed $188,000
11. 2013-06-03
    listed $188,000
12. 2013-06-01
    historical
13. 2013-02-02
    listed $188,000
14. 2013-02-01
    historical
15. 2012-12-03
    listed $195,900
16. 2012-12-02
    historical
17. 2012-07-01
    historical
18. 2012-07-01
    listed $196,000
19. 2012-02-04
    listed $196,000
20. 2012-01-30
    historical
21. 2010-10-16
    listed $196,000
22. 2001-06-19
    soldstatus $98,400
23. 1995-06-05
    soldstatus $68,000
24. 1991-10-01
    soldstatus $65,247
25. 1987-08-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,455 · $371/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,455 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$4,455
• − Insurance: −$2,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,320
• − Management: −$3,320
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$5,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $2,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 680,067 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 41,935
• Household income: $97,751
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -221.78%
• Current HPI: 280.3107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+766.7% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $390,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listed $490,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-25 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-26 Listed $535,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-02 Listed $188,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-03 Listed $188,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-02 Listed $188,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-03 Listed $195,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-01 Listed $196,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-04 Listed $196,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-30 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-16 Listed $196,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $98,400 Public Records
• 1995-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,247 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,455 · +33.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.