80 W Horseshoe Ave

Upton, KY 42776

$146,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,377/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $921/mo
• Annual: $11,048/yr
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.03%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $40,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $874 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-135 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#390 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 419 students, 51% FRL); East Hardin Middle School (math 33% / reading 56%, grade D, #36 of 217 statewide, top 18%, 780 students, 30% FRL); Central Hardin High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #28 of 254 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.