80 W Horseshoe Ave · Upton, KY 42776

$146,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1978 0.26 ac lot Est $230k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 80 W Horseshoe Ave in Upton! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath brick ranch offers 1,161 square feet of living space and is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a durable brick exterior, metal roof, covered carport, utility shed, rear patio, and a functional single-level floor plan, this property provides a solid foundation for renovation and improvement. The interior has been cleared and prepared for updates, allowing the next owner to bring their vision to life. Whether you're searching for your next investment property, rental opportunity, flip project, or a home where you can build sweat equity, this property offers plenty of potential. Conveniently located in Upton and being

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Brick exterior
• Utility shed

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• METAL ROOF
• COVERED CARPORT
• UTILITY SHED
• REAR PATIO
• SINGLE-LEVEL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to the property
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Attached garage; Asphalt driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: No fencing; Metal roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Electric heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Electric water heater; No fireplace; Crawl space; no finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#390 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $874 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-135 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,810 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.03%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,878
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 N Pleasant Hill Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,112 (-4%)	14mo	$220,000	$198	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $53,737
• Equity at exit: $41,721

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $140,757
• Equity at exit: $49,616

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42776

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,571/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,003	-5% $962	+0% $921	+5% $879	+10% $838
Rent	-10% $733	-5% $827	+0% $921	+5% $1,015	+10% $1,108
Rate	-1.0pp $994	-0.5pp $958	base $921	+0.5pp $883	+1.0pp $844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $146,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $146,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $146,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $146,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $146,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$1,571
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $9,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,217
• After-tax cash flow: $8,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Upton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #18769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upton, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,071

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Current HPI: 334.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+192.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $146,000 HKARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,571 · +82.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.