18147 Old Greek Mine Rd

Rail Road Flat, CA 95245

$199,998F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,561/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$472
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,458/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $55,999

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $640 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,208 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Toyon Middle (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #400 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 531 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.