18147 Old Greek Mine Rd · Rail Road Flat, CA 95245

$199,998

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2015 5.01 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the scenic Sierra Nevada foothills, 18147 Old Greek Mine Rd offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of classic Mokelumne Hill charm. Surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, this property delivers privacy, peacefulness, and a true connection to the outdoors while still being part of a historic Gold Country community. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this setting provides endless potential. Enjoy starry nights, fresh mountain air, and the slower pace of foothill livingjust minutes from the character and history of downtown Mokelumne Hill, with access to outdoor recreation, wineries, and nearby Sierra destinations. A perfect canvas for those seeking space, serenity, and the freedom to make it their own.

Key facts

• Wineries
• Outdoor recreation
• Mokelumne hill charm

Tags

• SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS
• MOKELUMNE HILL CHARM
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• WINERIES
• FOOTHILL LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,208 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Toyon Middle (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #400 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 531 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $640 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,087 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,070
• Equity at exit: $61,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,835
• Equity at exit: $76,300

Cash invested: $55,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95245

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,667/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $149,087

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-175	-5% $-232	+0% $-288	+5% $-345	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-411	-5% $-350	+0% $-288	+5% $-227	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-187	-0.5pp $-237	base $-288	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,998 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,998 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,998 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,998 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,998 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,998 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,998 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,998 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,998 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,998 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-05-07
    price $199,998 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Tucked away in the scenic Sierra Nevada foothills, 18147 Old Greek Mine Rd offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of classic Mokelumne Hill charm. Surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, this property delivers privacy, peacefulness, and a true connection to the outdoors while still being part of a historic Gold Country community. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this setting provides endless potential. Enjoy starry nights, fresh mountain air, and the slower pace of foothill livingjust minutes from the character and history of downtown Mokelumne Hill, with access to outdoor recreation, wineries, and nearby Sierra destinations. A perfect canvas for those seeking space, serenity, and the freedom to make it their own.

12. 2026-02-12
    price $249,998 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Tucked away in the scenic Sierra Nevada foothills, 18147 Old Greek Mine Rd offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of classic Mokelumne Hill charm. Surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, this property delivers privacy, peacefulness, and a true connection to the outdoors while still being part of a historic Gold Country community. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this setting provides endless potential. Enjoy starry nights, fresh mountain air, and the slower pace of foothill livingjust minutes from the character and history of downtown Mokelumne Hill, with access to outdoor recreation, wineries, and nearby Sierra destinations. A perfect canvas for those seeking space, serenity, and the freedom to make it their own.

13. 2026-02-10
    listed $249,998,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Tucked away in the scenic Sierra Nevada foothills, 18147 Old Greek Mine Rd offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of classic Mokelumne Hill charm. Surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, this property delivers privacy, peacefulness, and a true connection to the outdoors while still being part of a historic Gold Country community. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this setting provides endless potential. Enjoy starry nights, fresh mountain air, and the slower pace of foothill livingjust minutes from the character and history of downtown Mokelumne Hill, with access to outdoor recreation, wineries, and nearby Sierra destinations. A perfect canvas for those seeking space, serenity, and the freedom to make it their own.

14. 2022-04-01
    soldstatus $385,000
15. 2021-08-02
    soldstatus $310,000
16. 2018-01-26
    soldstatus $225,000
17. 2004-08-20
    soldstatus $219,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,667 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,667 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,667
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,957
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,670
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calaveras Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606870
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,559
• Composite: 20.06/100
• National rank: #8654
• State rank: #436 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rail Road Flat

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1208
• US rank: #26119

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,227

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Current HPI: 159.2644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $199,998 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $249,998 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $249,998,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,667 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.