1382 Blue Teal Ct

Southlake, TX 76092

$650,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,279 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,441/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,021
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,143
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,580/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $627k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $544k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $544k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#107 in TX, #3,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carroll ISD (suburban): math 84% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #1 of 826 in TX (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jack D Johnson El (math 75% / reading 84%, grade A, #35 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 690 students, 0% FRL); Carroll Middle (math 84% / reading 83%, grade A+, #5 of 1,662 statewide, top 0%, 736 students, 0% FRL); Carroll Senior H S (math 100%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.3% in Southlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.