1382 Blue Teal Ct · Southlake, TX 76092

$650,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,279 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1978 10,716 sqft lot $285/sqft · at area comps Est $630k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best-priced opportunity in Southlake under $700K - don't miss this one! Located in an unbeatable setting with walkability to Lake Grapevine, zoned to highly sought-after Carroll Independent School District, and just minutes from Southlake Town Square for premier dining and shopping. Inside, you'll find 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with a generously sized primary suite featuring a private en suite and walk-in closet. The standout family room with a soaring vaulted ceiling and a striking fireplace delivers the space and character buyers are looking for. The kitchen includes granite counters, an eat-in area, and a light-filled picture window. Bonus features like the climate-controlled garage and attached workroom-storage offers flexibility for hobbies, projects, or additional storage - features rarely found at this price point. Opportunities like this in Southlake - especially under $700K - are limited!

Key facts

• Private en suite
• Walk-in closet
• Striking fireplace

Tags

• PRIVATE EN SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SOARING VAULTED CEILING
• STRIKING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LIGHT-FILLED PICTURE WINDOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $627k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $544k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $544k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.3% in Southlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#107 in TX, #3,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carroll ISD (suburban): math 84% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #1 of 826 in TX (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jack D Johnson El (math 75% / reading 84%, grade A, #35 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 690 students, 0% FRL); Carroll Middle (math 84% / reading 83%, grade A+, #5 of 1,662 statewide, top 0%, 736 students, 0% FRL); Carroll Senior H S (math 100%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $544,085 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $630,000
• List price: $650,000
• Delta: 3.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2901 Flamingo Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,963 (-14%)	3mo	$650,000	$331	65
3524 Carlton St	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,248 (-1%)	22mo	$664,900	$296	65
2606 N Carroll Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,398 (+5%)	8mo	$1,100,000	$459	61
3504 Carlton St	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,487 (+9%)	8mo	$637,500	$256	61
2994 Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,083 (-9%)	20mo	$649,999	$312	60
3001 Flamingo Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,068 (-9%)	20mo	$650,000	$314	58
3421 Balboa Ct	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,487 (+9%)	8mo	$827,000	$333	58
3512 S Gravel Cir	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,496 (+10%)	13mo	$765,000	$306	50
1590 N Gravel Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,503 (+10%)	18mo	$674,999	$270	46
3400 Fox Fire	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,327 (+2%)	19mo	$4,250,000	$1,826	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-113,671
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-109,604
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76092

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$750 /mo · $9,005/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,143
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,608

Max offer price $626,738

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $52	+0% $-132	+5% $-316	+10% $-500
Rent	-10% $-562	-5% $-347	+0% $-132	+5% $83	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $34	base $-132	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2940 Flamingo Cir Southlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2584	$3,300	$1.28	45d	1	0.03mi
1399 Flamingo Cir Southlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1870	$3,295	$1.76	7d	1	0.10mi
3821 Sandlin St Southlake, TX	4.0	2.5	2455	$4,200	$1.71	20d	1	0.28mi
3024 Sweet Briar St Grapevine, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$3,400	$1.80	45d	1	1.31mi
2937 Sweet Briar St Grapevine, TX	4.0	2.5	2438	$4,300	$1.76	3d	1	1.38mi
500 Brooks Ct Southlake, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,200	$0.67	45d	1	1.44mi
408 Montpelier Dr Southlake, TX	3.0	3.5	2929	$6,200	$2.12	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $650,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $650,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $660,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $660,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $660,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $660,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $660,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $675,000 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Best-priced opportunity in Southlake under $700K - don't miss this one! Located in an unbeatable setting with walkability to Lake Grapevine, zoned to highly sought-after Carroll Independent School District, and just minutes from Southlake Town Square for premier dining and shopping. Inside, you'll find 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with a generously sized primary suite featuring a private en suite and walk-in closet. The standout family room with a soaring vaulted ceiling and a striking fireplace delivers the space and character buyers are looking for. The kitchen includes granite counters, an eat-in area, and a light-filled picture window. Bonus features like the climate-controlled garage and attached workroom-storage offers flexibility for hobbies, projects, or additional storage - features rarely found at this price point. Opportunities like this in Southlake - especially under $700K - are limited!

16. 2026-04-03
    listed $699,900 Active 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Best-priced opportunity in Southlake under $700K - don't miss this one! Located in an unbeatable setting with walkability to Lake Grapevine, zoned to highly sought-after Carroll Independent School District, and just minutes from Southlake Town Square for premier dining and shopping. Inside, you'll find 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with a generously sized primary suite featuring a private en suite and walk-in closet. The standout family room with a soaring vaulted ceiling and a striking fireplace delivers the space and character buyers are looking for. The kitchen includes granite counters, an eat-in area, and a light-filled picture window. Bonus features like the climate-controlled garage and attached workroom-storage offers flexibility for hobbies, projects, or additional storage - features rarely found at this price point. Opportunities like this in Southlake - especially under $700K - are limited!

17. 2024-09-10
    historical $3,300
18. 2024-08-16
    listed $3,300
19. 2024-08-16
    historical $3,500
20. 2024-07-21
    price $3,500
21. 2024-06-28
    listed $4,000
22. 2000-02-15
    soldstatus
23. 2000-02-11
    soldstatus
24. 1990-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,005 · $750/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,895 · $991/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,890/yr (+$241/mo · 32.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$9,005
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,223
• − Management: −$5,223
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$12,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,055
• After-tax cash flow: $1,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813020
• Math proficiency: 84% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $176,203
• Composite: 82.64/100
• National rank: #21
• State rank: #1 of 826 in TX

Livability — Southlake

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #3547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southlake, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 31,520
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,520
• Household income: $250,001
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 137.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.85%
• Current HPI: 302.8677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16775.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $675,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $699,900 NTREIS
• 2024-09-10 Rental Removed $3,300 NTREIS
• 2024-08-16 Listed for Rent $3,300 NTREIS
• 2024-08-16 Rental Removed $3,500 NTREIS
• 2024-07-21 Price Changed $3,500 NTREIS
• 2024-06-28 Listed for Rent $4,000 NTREIS
• 2000-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,005 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.