8 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,762 sqft ·
Built 1969
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,115/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,118
Tax + insurance
−$703
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,284
Net cashflow
$1,010/mo
Annual
$12,122/yr
Cap rate
8.33%
Cash-on-cash
7.28%
DSCR
1.32
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$166,460
Investor read
This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $594k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $253/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $594k).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($577k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $577k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $380k; list at $594k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,115/mo this rent would consume 100% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1618% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K6WY4E49KHXMS9
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29