12602 Big Bear Dr

Arlington Heights, PA 18302

$299,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 852 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-255/mo
• Annual: $-3,065/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $299k implies a 1395% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.