12602 Big Bear Dr · Arlington Heights, PA 18302

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1993 0.45 ac lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath property offering space, comfort, and a peaceful community setting. Step inside to find new vinyl flooring and a spacious lower-level family room perfect for entertaining, movie nights, a game room, or relaxing with family and friends. Enjoy outdoor living with a large rear deck overlooking the expansive backyard, while the generous front yard adds to the home's curb appeal and open feel. Whether you're hosting summer gatherings, gardening, or simply enjoying the outdoors, this property offers plenty of room to spread out. Located in a desirable community known for low dues and a private 2-acre lake, this home combines value, com

Key facts

• Private 2-acre lake
• Generous front yard
• Expansive backyard

Tags

• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• LARGE REAR DECK
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• GENEROUS FRONT YARD
• PRIVATE 2-ACRE LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Pocono Wild Haven subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $50

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street paved parking on site; 4 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Fiberglass and shingle roof; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Level lot with front and back yard; Paved road access (publicly maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Finished walk-out basement; Fireplace in the living room (electric)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $299k implies a 1395% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $222,519 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,292
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
457 Schoolhouse Road Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	927 (+9%)	22mo	$205,000	$221	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-63,702
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-75,133
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,608/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $256,725

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $299,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $320,000 Active
19. 1993-03-19
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,608 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,166 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$558/yr (+$47/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,608
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,960
• After-tax cash flow: $-912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Arlington Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #2815

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1500.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $320,000 PMAR
• 1993-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,608 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.