20 J O Crawford Ln

Arnoldsville, GA 30619

$120,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $125/mo
• Annual: $1,498/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#566 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Oglethorpe County (rural): math 40% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #58 of 174 in GA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oglethorpe County Primary School (563 students, 54% FRL); Oglethorpe County Middle School (math 47% / reading 41%, grade D, #113 of 470 statewide, top 24%, 517 students, 59% FRL); Oglethorpe County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #110 of 424 statewide, top 28%, 655 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 140 units permitted in Oglethorpe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oglethorpe County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $120k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.