20 J O Crawford Ln · Arnoldsville, GA 30619

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1969 4.07 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Arnoldsville! This 4.07-acre property is located just 22 minutes from Athens, GA and offers the perfect setup for your next project. The property includes an older mobile home that will require a complete renovation or tear-down, making it ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to build new. Utilities are already in place, including electricity, functioning septic system, and a water well with new pump. RV connection added in 2023. Additional improvements include a new fence and new storage building. Whether you're looking to renovate, replace with a new home, or create a private homesite with existing infrastructure, this property offers flexibility and value. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• New pump
• Water well
• Utilities in place

Tags

• 3.37 ACRE PROPERTY
• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• UTILITIES IN PLACE
• FUNCTIONING SEPTIC SYSTEM
• WATER WELL
• NEW PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#566 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Oglethorpe County (rural): math 40% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #58 of 174 in GA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oglethorpe County Primary School (563 students, 54% FRL); Oglethorpe County Middle School (math 47% / reading 41%, grade D, #113 of 470 statewide, top 24%, 517 students, 59% FRL); Oglethorpe County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #110 of 424 statewide, top 28%, 655 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 140 units permitted in Oglethorpe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oglethorpe County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $120k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,938 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $73,245
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $209,321
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30619

• Home prices YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $891

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $159	+0% $125	+5% $91	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $42	-5% $83	+0% $125	+5% $166	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $155	base $125	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-02-11
   listed $120,000 New 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Great opportunity in Arnoldsville! This 4.07-acre property is located just 22 minutes from Athens, GA and offers the perfect setup for your next project. The property includes an older mobile home that will require a complete renovation or tear-down, making it ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to build new. Utilities are already in place, including electricity, functioning septic system, and a water well with new pump. RV connection added in 2023. Additional improvements include a new fence and new storage building. Whether you’re looking to renovate, replace with a new home, or create a private homesite with existing infrastructure, this property offers flexibility and value. Sold as-is.

6. 2026-02-11
   listed $120,000 Active 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Great opportunity in Arnoldsville! This 4.07-acre property is located just 22 minutes from Athens, GA and offers the perfect setup for your next project. The property includes an older mobile home that will require a complete renovation or tear-down, making it ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to build new. Utilities are already in place, including electricity, functioning septic system, and a water well with new pump. RV connection added in 2023. Additional improvements include a new fence and new storage building. Whether you’re looking to renovate, replace with a new home, or create a private homesite with existing infrastructure, this property offers flexibility and value. Sold as-is.

7. 2026-02-11
   listed $120,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Great opportunity in Arnoldsville! This 4.07-acre property is located just 22 minutes from Athens, GA and offers the perfect setup for your next project. The property includes an older mobile home that will require a complete renovation or tear-down, making it ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to build new. Utilities are already in place, including electricity, functioning septic system, and a water well with new pump. RV connection added in 2023. Additional improvements include a new fence and new storage building. Whether you’re looking to renovate, replace with a new home, or create a private homesite with existing infrastructure, this property offers flexibility and value. Sold as-is.

8. 2023-03-14
   soldstatus $50,000 Sold
9. 2023-03-14
   soldstatus $50,000
10. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus $50,000
11. 2023-02-20
    status Under Contract
12. 2023-01-23
    status Back On Market
13. 2023-01-19
    status Under Contract
14. 2023-01-04
    price $85,000
15. 2022-12-11
    listed $125,000 New
16. 2022-12-11
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$806/yr (+$67/mo · 269.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,007
• − Management: −$1,007
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oglethorpe County
• NCES district ID: 1303990
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,507
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6093
• State rank: #58 of 174 in GA

Livability — Arnoldsville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #566
• US rank: #24809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arnoldsville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 1,585

Population outlook (Oglethorpe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,904 people
• By 2030: 14,658 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 13,902 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 12,924 · -13.3%
• By 2075: 11,049 · -25.9%
• By 2100: 9,317 · -37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Oglethorpe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.5% · R 70.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+37.3 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.58%
• Current HPI: 324.0344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-14 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (MLS) $50,000 GAMLS
• 2023-02-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-01-23 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-01-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-01-04 Price Changed $85,000 GAMLS
• 2022-12-11 Listed $85,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-12-11 Listed $125,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $298 · -35.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.