2037 San Marcos Dr SE #217

Winter Haven, FL 33880

$109,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 826 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Pending · 401 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,404/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-46/mo
• Annual: $-556/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-556/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Snively Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 399 students, 72% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $109k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.