5 bd · 3.5 ba ·
2,394 sqft ·
Built 1892
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 29 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,460/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,678
Tax + insurance
−$196
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$937
Net cashflow
$1,650/mo
Annual
$19,798/yr
Cap rate
12.48%
Cash-on-cash
22.10%
DSCR
1.98
1% rule
1.39%
Cash to close
$89,572
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $320k).
It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $315k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $255k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,460/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 2180% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K7N4MX1PGSYHHM
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29