154 Church Ln

Timberlake, VA 24550

$89,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1901 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,465/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $542/mo
• Annual: $6,507/yr
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.11%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leesville Road Elementary (math 73% / reading 72%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 74% FRL); Brookville Middle (math 44% / reading 72%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 715 students, 74% FRL); Brookville High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 971 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — outdated and in need of replacement
• Major: bathroom fixtures — outdated and possibly in need of replacement
• Moderate: exterior paint — moderate wear and tear