154 Church Ln · Timberlake, VA 24550

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1901 Fair condition 1.96 ac lot Est $165k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique opportunity at 154 Church Lane in Evington with nearly 2 acres of flat, usable land with a large workshop and multiple outbuildings. The property features a singlewide home that offers the potential to be restored into livable condition, along with a spacious metal-roof shop previously used for antique furniture restoration. The shop is full of tools and furniture that will convey with the sale, creating an incredible opportunity for a craftsman, hobbyist, or small business setup. In addition to the shop, the property includes two large storage sheds, also contents included. With a mix of open grass and wooded areas, this property offers flexibility for a variety of uses whether you'

Key facts

• Large workshop
• Open grass
• Usable land

Tags

• USABLE LAND
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• SPACIOUS METAL-ROOF SHOP
• TWO LARGE STORAGE SHEDS
• OPEN GRASS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leesville Road Elementary (math 73% / reading 72%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 74% FRL); Brookville Middle (math 44% / reading 72%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 715 students, 74% FRL); Brookville High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 971 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.11%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,850
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Church Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,050 (0%)	1mo	$90,000	$86	99
10815 Colonial Hwy	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (0%)	7mo	$165,000	$157	70
23 Miles Ln	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,030 (-2%)	10mo	$199,000	$193	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $20,136
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $62,093
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24550

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $573	+0% $542	+5% $511	+10% $481
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $484	+0% $542	+5% $600	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $565	base $542	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $5,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and a fresh coat of paint on the exterior. Landscaping improvements will also enhance its curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in need of replacement
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and possibly in need of replacement
• Moderate exterior paint — moderate wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale paint exterior — improving curb appeal will increase the home's value
• Both landscaping — improving the landscaping will enhance both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and possibly in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · moderate wear and tear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$33,000–115,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale paint exterior — improving curb appeal will increase the home's value ↑
• Both landscaping — improving the landscaping will enhance both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,941

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Vietnamese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.59%
• Current HPI: 180.6833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $89,000 LMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $176 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.