2708 N Valle Verde Dr

Nogales, AZ 85621

$300,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,093 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Under Contract

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$637
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $397/mo
• Annual: $4,766/yr
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.77%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#59 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nogales Unified District (4457) (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #207 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Francisco Vasquez De Coronado Elementary School (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 515 students, 63% FRL); Desert Shadows Middle School (math 14% / reading 25%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 760 students, 75% FRL); Nogales High School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #258 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,796 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $300k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.4% in Nogales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.