2708 N Valle Verde Dr · Nogales, AZ 85621

$300,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,093 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1967 Est $283k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Centrally located in the desirable Valle Verde area of Nogales, this beautifully remodeled home offers both comfort and convenience. Just minutes from Villa & acirc; & euro; & trade; s Market and with easy access to I-19, the location is ideal for commuting and everyday needs. This 3-bedroom, 3-bath home features a functional and flexible layout, including a spacious primary suite, a junior master suite, and a third bedroom & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; perfect for guests or multi-generational living. The expansive primary suite offers a private bonus area, creating the perfect space for a home office, cozy sitting room, or peaceful retreat. The home offers a formal livi

Key facts

• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.4% in Nogales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#59 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities D-.
• Nogales Unified District (4457) (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #207 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $300k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.77%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,555
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2735 N Silver Reef Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	2,020 (-4%)	1mo	$270,000	$134	78
2724 N Green Pl	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,998 (-4%)	11mo	$269,000	$135	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $188,820
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $536,415
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85621

• Home prices YoY: 16.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,797

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $482	+0% $397	+5% $312	+10% $227
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $267	+0% $397	+5% $528	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $474	base $397	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2509 N Mesquite Pl Nogales, AZ	3.0	3.5	2933	$3,300	$1.13	3d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $300,000
2. 2024-08-30
   soldstatus $170,000
3. 1987-05-26
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,020 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,980 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$960/yr (+$80/mo · 94.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$6,619
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $93
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22
• After-tax cash flow: $4,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nogales Unified District (4457)
• NCES district ID: 0405530
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $28,293
• Composite: 13.72/100
• National rank: #9494
• State rank: #207 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Nogales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #10055

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,512

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 51% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 91%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.62%
• Current HPI: 385.6724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $300,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1987-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,020 · +21.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.