19535 Spruce Dr

Anchorage, AK 99567

$132,400B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$694
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $1,195/mo
• Annual: $14,336/yr
• Cap rate: 17.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.67%
• DSCR: 2.72
• 1% rule: 2.24%
• Cash to close: $37,072

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $132k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $915 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chugiak Elementary (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #25 of 156 statewide, top 18%, 448 students, 17% FRL); Chugiak High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #17 of 61 statewide, top 32%, 905 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools average 18% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.