10349 Lanier Ln

Stockton, CA 95219

$544,000D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,996 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,853
• Tax + insurance: −$994
• HOA: −$108
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-1,294/mo
• Annual: $-15,528/yr
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.19%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $152,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $544k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (38.1% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($536k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manlio Silva Elementary (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 757 students, 59% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 632 students, 58% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $395k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$93k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.