10349 Lanier Ln · Stockton, CA 95219

$544,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2003 5,998 sqft lot $182/sqft · 14% below area Est $631k · 14% under $108/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 10349 Lanier Ln, a stunning 2,996 sq. ft. home located in the highly sought-after Spanos community. This spacious and beautifully maintained residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, elegance, and functionality. Step inside to a grand entry featuring soaring vaulted ceilings and an inviting formal living and dining area, creating a bright and sophisticated first impression. The expansive kitchen is designed for both entertaining and everyday living, offering abundant cabinetry, a pantry closet, and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly into the cozy family room and breakfast nook. The thoughtfully designed floor plan includes all bedrooms upstairs, providing privacy a

Key facts

• Grand entry
• Expansive kitchen
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• GRAND ENTRY
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FORMAL LIVING AND DINING AREA
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PANTRY CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with monthly fee; HOA amenities include pool, clubhouse, and barbeque

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener and garage facing front; 3-car garage; Paved, level driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Irrigation from public district; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Two-story home; Built in 2003; Tile roof
• Construction: Tile roof; Detached single-family construction; Year built 2003
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Auto sprinkler front and rear; Landscaped front and back; Curb and gutter; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Butler's pantry; Pantry closet; Island; Kitchen open to family room; Tile countertops; Free-standing gas range and oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Master suite with sitting area and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with shower stall, double sinks, tub, fiberglass surround and window; Other baths with double sinks and tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Formal entry; Storage areas; Dual-pane full windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with cabinets and gas hook-up; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $544k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (38.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manlio Silva Elementary (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 757 students, 59% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 632 students, 58% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$93k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($536k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $395k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,416 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.19%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $631,075
• List price: $544,000
• Delta: -12.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10305 Bridgeview Ln	0.13mi	5/3.0	3,063 (+2%)	4mo	$648,500	$212	84
5433 Gladstone Dr	0.26mi	5/3.0	3,160 (+6%)	0mo	$650,000	$206	76
10219 Mono Ct	0.10mi	5/2.5	2,635 (-12%)	2mo	$599,000	$227	74
10831 Meadowmont Way	0.43mi	5/3.0	3,166 (+6%)	8mo	$683,000	$216	62
10301 Ultar Dr	0.61mi	5/3.5	2,966 (-1%)	6mo	$671,500	$226	61
10924 Lakemore	0.43mi	5/3.0	3,166 (+6%)	9mo	$655,000	$207	61
10349 Baldy Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,776 (-7%)	5mo	$590,000	$213	56
5806 Lagrande Way	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,615 (-13%)	10mo	$635,000	$243	56
6907 Foraker Dr	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,833 (-5%)	3mo	$615,000	$217	56
5379 Ridgeview Cir	0.60mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,168 (+6%)	4mo	$692,000	$218	52
5914 Silveroak Cir	0.43mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,585 (-14%)	2mo	$582,000	$225	46
5651 Westchester Cir	0.49mi	5/3.5	2,585 (-14%)	7mo	$600,000	$232	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $218,011
• Equity at exit: $490,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $715,613
• Equity at exit: $1,056,872

Cash invested: $152,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,853
• Tax from tax record: −$767 /mo · $9,206/yr
• Insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $-1,294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,006

Max offer price $315,416

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-986	-5% $-1,140	+0% $-1,294	+5% $-1,448	+10% $-1,602
Rent	-10% $-1,560	-5% $-1,427	+0% $-1,294	+5% $-1,161	+10% $-1,028
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,020	-0.5pp $-1,156	base $-1,294	+0.5pp $-1,435	+1.0pp $-1,578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $136,000
• Closing costs: $16,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10210 Copco Ln Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	2252	$3,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.37mi
10831 Larboard Ct Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2160	$3,950	$1.83	45d	1	0.54mi
6831 Oakum Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2318	$3,100	$1.34	45d	1	0.61mi
7017 Overlook Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,095	$1.29	45d	1	1.03mi
10100 Downy Birch Dr Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2639	$3,500	$1.33	23d	1	1.04mi
10962 Admiral Cove Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,200	$1.33	16d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $544,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $544,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $544,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $544,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $544,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $544,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $544,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $544,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $544,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $544,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $544,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $544,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $544,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $544,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2004-06-25
    soldstatus $395,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,206 · $767/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,206 · $767/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,472
• − Property taxes: −$9,206
• − Insurance: −$2,720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,233
• − Management: −$3,233
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$15,825
• Taxable loss: −$25,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,137
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2004-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,206 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.