6 bd · 4.0 ba ·
1,600 sqft ·
Built 1975
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,414/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$214
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$507
Net cashflow
$381/mo
Annual
$4,576/yr
Cap rate
8.12%
Cash-on-cash
6.54%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$70,000
Investor read
This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (3.5% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $241k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,137 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $145k; list at $250k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K93ZRA6DEJP9TC
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29