1227 E Ginter Rd

Tucson, AZ 85706

$172,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 443 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 287 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-889/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $48,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-889/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?