1227 E Ginter Rd · Tucson, AZ 85706

$172,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 443 sqft · Manufactured public records · 287 Days on market

Built 1971 7,841 sqft lot $388/sqft · 116% above area Est $209k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PLEASE READ: ***CASH ONLY. PRE-1974 BUILT MANUFACTURED HOME *** BOTH SIDES ARE TENANT OCCUPIED. Home will only be shown with an accepted offer. Excellent income property or primary home with guest home possibilities. The east side unit offers an open floor plan with split bedrooms, and a large kitchen, and the west unit provides a nicely sized bedroom, full bath and open kitchen and living area. Each unit has its own laundry and dedicated fenced in area. If desired, the home can also be combined into one residence. Lots of potential, possibility and opportunity! The home has been freshly painted inside and waiting for its new owners.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-889/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,025 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,747
• List price: $172,000
• Delta: -17.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-35,917
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-50,289
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85706

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $678/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $158,911

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-25	+0% $-74	+5% $-123	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-122	+0% $-74	+5% $-26	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-30	base $-74	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 287 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 282 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 281 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $172,000 Active 279 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,000 Active 276 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $172,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,000 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,000 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    status Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    PLEASE READ: ***CASH ONLY. PRE-1974 BUILT MANUFACTURED HOME *** BOTH SIDES ARE TENANT OCCUPIED. Home will only be shown with an accepted offer. Excellent income property or primary home with guest home possibilities. The east side unit offers an open floor plan with split bedrooms, and a large kitchen, and the west unit provides a nicely sized bedroom, full bath and open kitchen and living area. Each unit has its own laundry and dedicated fenced in area. If desired, the home can also be combined into one residence. Lots of potential, possibility and opportunity! The home has been freshly painted inside and waiting for its new owners.

17. 2026-02-07
    historical 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    PLEASE READ: ***CASH ONLY. PRE-1974 BUILT MANUFACTURED HOME *** BOTH SIDES ARE TENANT OCCUPIED. Home will only be shown with an accepted offer. Excellent income property or primary home with guest home possibilities. The east side unit offers an open floor plan with split bedrooms, and a large kitchen, and the west unit provides a nicely sized bedroom, full bath and open kitchen and living area. Each unit has its own laundry and dedicated fenced in area. If desired, the home can also be combined into one residence. Lots of potential, possibility and opportunity! The home has been freshly painted inside and waiting for its new owners.

18. 2025-09-25
    price $172,000 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    PLEASE READ: ***CASH ONLY. PRE-1974 BUILT MANUFACTURED HOME *** BOTH SIDES ARE TENANT OCCUPIED. Home will only be shown with an accepted offer. Excellent income property or primary home with guest home possibilities. The east side unit offers an open floor plan with split bedrooms, and a large kitchen, and the west unit provides a nicely sized bedroom, full bath and open kitchen and living area. Each unit has its own laundry and dedicated fenced in area. If desired, the home can also be combined into one residence. Lots of potential, possibility and opportunity! The home has been freshly painted inside and waiting for its new owners.

19. 2025-09-02
    listed $180,000 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    PLEASE READ: ***CASH ONLY. PRE-1974 BUILT MANUFACTURED HOME *** BOTH SIDES ARE TENANT OCCUPIED. Home will only be shown with an accepted offer. Excellent income property or primary home with guest home possibilities. The east side unit offers an open floor plan with split bedrooms, and a large kitchen, and the west unit provides a nicely sized bedroom, full bath and open kitchen and living area. Each unit has its own laundry and dedicated fenced in area. If desired, the home can also be combined into one residence. Lots of potential, possibility and opportunity! The home has been freshly painted inside and waiting for its new owners.

20. 2023-01-06
    soldstatus $168,150 Closed 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

21. 2023-01-06
    soldstatus $168,150 Closed

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

22. 2023-01-06
    soldstatus $168,150

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

23. 2023-01-04
    status Pending 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

24. 2023-01-04
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

25. 2022-12-16
    historical Active Contingent

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

26. 2022-12-16
    historical Active Contingent 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

27. 2022-12-10
    price $169,000 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

28. 2022-12-10
    price $169,000

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

29. 2022-08-26
    listed $185,000 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

30. 2022-08-26
    listed $185,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Meticulously maintained, affixed manufactured home + attached guest house is a pleasant surprise! East unit offers: open floor plan, split bedrooms, large kitchen, spacious bath, evap cooled with gas furnace, plenty of storage inside & out, laundry rm, plus two covered parking spots. West unit, late 90's site-built guest house features: generously sized bedroom, full bath & open kitchen/living space. Each side has own laundry & private, fully fenced yard. Wait, there's more: superbly insulated & stuccoed, electrical completely redone, new water & sewer lines, newly recoated roof & termite warranty. Plus, units can easily be combined into one residence. Excellent workhorse rental with possibility for more!

31. 1996-05-31
    soldstatus $24,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $678 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 67.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$678
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,162
• − Management: −$1,162
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$3,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$955
• After-tax cash flow: $65/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sunnyside Unified District (4407)
• NCES district ID: 0408170
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $34,365
• Composite: 9.76/100
• National rank: #9827
• State rank: #233 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,236
• Household income: $50,248
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1926.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 36% White 10% Native American 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.59%
• Current HPI: 376.8462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+610.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $172,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-02 Listed $180,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $168,150 Public Records
• 2023-01-06 Sold (MLS) $168,150 MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-06 Sold (MLS) $168,150 MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-04 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-04 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-16 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-16 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-10 Price Changed $169,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-10 Price Changed $169,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-26 Listed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-26 Listed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 1996-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $24,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $678 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.