2929 Zion Rd Rd

Gretna, VA 24557

$159,999D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-98/mo
• Annual: $-1,180/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#157 in VA, #4,927 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pittsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #22 of 131 in VA (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Gretna Elementary (math 72% / reading 80%, grade A, #202 of 1,108 statewide, top 19%, 460 students, 83% FRL); Gretna Middle (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 397 students, 81% FRL); Gretna High (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 535 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 47% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Pittsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pittsylvania County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.