2929 Zion Rd Rd · Gretna, VA 24557

$159,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1955 0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

3BR/1BA home situated on a quiet country road just 5 miles from town. Features a functional floor plan with spacious bedrooms, a finished attic for additional living or storage space, and a large lot. Enjoy the privacy of a rural setting with the benefit of being minutes from shopping, dining, and schools.

Key facts

• Quiet country road
• Finished attic
• Large lot

Tags

• FINISHED ATTIC
• LARGE LOT
• QUIET COUNTRY ROAD
• RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#157 in VA, #4,927 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pittsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #22 of 131 in VA (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Gretna Elementary (math 72% / reading 80%, grade A, #202 of 1,108 statewide, top 19%, 460 students, 83% FRL); Gretna Middle (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 397 students, 81% FRL); Gretna High (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 535 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 47% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Pittsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Pittsylvania County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,753 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,945
• Equity at exit: $62,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $34,442
• Equity at exit: $89,263

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24557

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $621/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $142,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-53	+0% $-98	+5% $-144	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-141	+0% $-98	+5% $-55	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-58	base $-98	+0.5pp $-140	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-05
   soldstatus $159,999
2. 2025-10-22
   status Pending
3. 2025-09-26
   listed $159,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $621 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 111.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$621
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $-202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102940
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,672
• Composite: 59.77/100
• National rank: #900
• State rank: #22 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gretna

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #4927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,832

Population outlook (Pittsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,725 people
• By 2030: 56,388 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 51,088 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 45,875 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 36,555 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 28,288 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 20% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pittsylvania

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.1% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+39.8 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+27.5 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.91%
• Current HPI: 160.7742
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $159,999 Public Records
• 2025-10-22 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $159,999 LMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $621 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.