3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,527 sqft ·
Built 2021
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 11 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,457/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,993
Tax + insurance
−$633
HOA
−$204
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$516
Net cashflow
$-889/mo
Annual
$-10,668/yr
Cap rate
3.49%
Cash-on-cash
-10.03%
DSCR
0.55
1% rule
0.65%
Cash to close
$106,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-889 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (33.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (35.3% below list).
Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $246k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K9B2VR5344KJ2G
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29