200 Jay St

Trinidad, TX 75163

$95,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$259
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $488/mo
• Annual: $5,859/yr
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.03%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $983 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,274 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Trinidad ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #684 of 1,141 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.5% in Trinidad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.