21210 Chesterfield Ave

Ettrick, VA 23803

$169,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1937 · Townhouse · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,349/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-217/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-217/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#65 in VA, #2,105 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, employment D-.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $169k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.