21210 Chesterfield Ave · Ettrick, VA 23803

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Townhouse public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1937 10,018 sqft lot $156/sqft · 21% below area Est $213k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Chesterfield Schools! Great investment / rental property. Brick home, metal roof, wood floors, large lot. Property needs work. Property and out buildings convey in AS IS condition.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Chesterfield schools
• Wood floors

Tags

• CHESTERFIELD SCHOOLS
• BRICK HOME
• METAL ROOF
• WOOD FLOORS
• LARGE LOT
• OUT BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-217/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#65 in VA, #2,105 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, employment D-.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $169k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,896 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,255
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -20.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,753
• Equity at exit: $61,675

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $60,885
• Equity at exit: $85,132

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,525/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $165,800

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 Main St Unit A South Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,150	$1.16	1d	1	0.17mi
3716 Totty St South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,700	$1.56	43d	1	0.27mi
21512 Jackson St South Chesterfield, VA	1.0	1.0	1010	$1,150	$1.14	43d	1	0.30mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 119 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,399	$1.42	43d	1	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,395	$1.74	1d	11	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 404 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	863	$1,400	$1.62	43d	1	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Apt 305 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	945	$1,350	$1.43	44d	1	0.58mi
20900 Riverterrace Rd Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,262	$1.33	1d	4	0.60mi
714 High St Apt E Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	21d	1	0.61mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 400 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	892	$1,500	$1.68	43d	1	0.64mi
20304 Loyal Ave South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	991	$1,650	$1.66	20d	1	0.69mi
406 Bradsher Ave Unit A Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,050	$1.12	23d	1	0.70mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	19d	2	0.71mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,395	$1.87	1d	8	0.71mi
712 W Washington St Unit B Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1209	$1,250	$1.03	23d	1	0.80mi
232 High St Unit B Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	1d	1	0.87mi
226 High St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	922	$1,500	$1.63	2d	1	0.87mi
212 S Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	0.94mi
115 Pine St Unit 115 Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,462	$1.04	43d	1	0.96mi
929 Farmer St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	23d	1	0.98mi
25 W Bank St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	765	$995	$1.30	1d	7	0.99mi
114 Lee Ave Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,750	$1.61	23d	1	1.00mi
230 N Sycamore St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	622	$1,150	$1.85	1d	7	1.04mi
16 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$2,312	$3.01	1d	17	1.06mi
109 Perry St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,577	$2.00	2d	15	1.07mi
9 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$1,350	$1.87	17d	6	1.08mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,310	$1.69	21d	2	1.10mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	14d	9	1.10mi
408 S West St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	21d	1	1.10mi
15 N Union St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,072	$1.62	17d	9	1.13mi
1111 Stainback St Apt 2 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	43d	1	1.13mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 5202 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	43d	1	1.14mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 2108 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	23d	1	1.14mi
30 Franklin St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,550	$2.05	19d	1	1.23mi
147 Witten St Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,495	$1.28	10d	1	1.27mi
250 E Bank St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,509	$1.75	1d	19	1.34mi
20308 Hickory Branch Dr South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,850	$1.25	3d	1	1.35mi
500 Floral Ave Colonial Heights, VA	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,895	$1.58	23d	1	1.35mi
707 Hamilton Ave Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	999	$1,325	$1.33	11d	1	1.35mi
1118 Jett Ave Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,400	$1.79	11d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   Chesterfield Schools! Great investment / rental property. Brick home, metal roof, wood floors, large lot. Property needs work. Property and out buildings convey in AS IS condition.

2. 2026-04-22
   price $169,000 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   Chesterfield Schools! Great investment / rental property. Brick home, metal roof, wood floors, large lot. Property needs work. Property and out buildings convey in AS IS condition.

3. 2026-03-19
   price $179,000 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   Chesterfield Schools! Great investment / rental property. Brick home, metal roof, wood floors, large lot. Property needs work. Property and out buildings convey in AS IS condition.

4. 2026-03-17
   listed $189,000 Active 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   Chesterfield Schools! Great investment / rental property. Brick home, metal roof, wood floors, large lot. Property needs work. Property and out buildings convey in AS IS condition.

5. 2026-02-27
   historical
6. 2025-11-14
   listed $189,000 Active
7. 2019-05-22
   soldstatus $75,000
8. 2018-03-22
   soldstatus $31,909
9. 2018-03-06
   soldstatus $22,500
10. 2017-02-13
    historical
11. 2017-02-13
    status Pending
12. 2017-01-25
    price $65,000
13. 2016-11-17
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,525 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,525 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,525
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$757
• After-tax cash flow: $540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ettrick

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #2105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ettrick, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+111.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $169,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $179,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $189,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $189,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $31,909 Public Records
• 2018-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records
• 2017-02-13 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2017-02-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2017-01-25 Price Changed $65,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-11-17 Listed $80,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,525 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.