12656 22nd ST St NW

Watford City, ND 58854

$179,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $30/mo
• Annual: $357/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($357/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (10.4% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#39 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mckenzie County 1 (rural): math 33% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #34 of 53 in ND (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Badlands Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #118 of 236 statewide, top 54%, 566 students, 42% FRL); Watford City Middle School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #29 of 35 statewide, top 82%, 455 students, 33% FRL); Watford City High School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #128 of 144 statewide, top 90%, 477 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 38 units permitted in McKenzie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McKenzie County population projected at +180% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Watford City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.