12656 22nd ST St NW · Watford City, ND 58854

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2010

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2010

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($357/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Watford City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#39 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mckenzie County 1 (rural): math 33% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #34 of 53 in ND (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Badlands Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #118 of 236 statewide, top 54%, 566 students, 42% FRL); Watford City Middle School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #29 of 35 statewide, top 82%, 455 students, 33% FRL); Watford City High School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #128 of 144 statewide, top 90%, 477 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 38 units permitted in McKenzie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McKenzie County population projected at +180% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $161,142 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-27,231
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,172
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58854

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $92	+0% $30	+5% $-32	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-34	+0% $30	+5% $93	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $76	base $30	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2014-02-18
   soldstatus
2. 2013-08-15
   historical
3. 2013-07-31
   listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$640
• After-tax cash flow: $997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckenzie County 1
• NCES district ID: 3812540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,150
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5902
• State rank: #34 of 53 in ND

Livability — Watford City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #5688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: McKenzie County · 9,368 people
• City population: 9,368
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 9,368
• Household income: $99,000
• Rent vs Own: 53.2% rent · 46.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 163.0

Population outlook (McKenzie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,775 people
• By 2030: 37,834 · +31.5%
• By 2040: 58,116 · +102.0%
• By 2050: 80,685 · +180.4%
• By 2075: 142,630 · +395.7%
• By 2100: 200,986 · +598.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Scottish 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McKenzie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.91%
• Current HPI: 129.8723
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2014-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-15 Delisted — Badlands BOR MLS
• 2013-07-31 Listed $179,900 Badlands BOR MLS