65 Hess Ave

Hellertown, PA 18055

$309,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,567/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$553
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-146/mo
• Annual: $-1,746/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#83 in PA, #609 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Saucon Valley SD (suburban): math 57% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #58 of 539 in PA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Saucon Valley El Sch (math 53% / reading 66%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 670 students, 27% FRL); Saucon Valley Ms (math 48% / reading 67%, grade B, #61 of 512 statewide, top 13%, 635 students, 28% FRL); Saucon Valley Shs (math 87% / reading 24%, grade C, #93 of 437 statewide, top 22%, 648 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.