342 Pond Creek Rd

Belfry, KY 41535

$29,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1968 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,111/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $267/mo
• Annual: $3,200/yr
• Cap rate: 34.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.37%
• DSCR: 5.42
• 1% rule: 3.71%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $226 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#374 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.