342 Pond Creek Rd · Belfry, KY 41535

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1968 0.57 ac lot $21/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Structure is a single wide mobile home that has been remodeled and needs some TLC. This property is conveniently located on Rt. 199 just off of Hwy 119. Close to churches, schools, shopping and medical offices/hospital.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Close to schools
• Close to shopping

Tags

• REMODELED
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO MEDICAL OFFICES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#374 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $226 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.37%
• DSCR: 5.42
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,752
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -65.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $15,333
• Equity at exit: $7,571

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $39,083
• Equity at exit: $8,256

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41535

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $773

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   Structure is a single wide mobile home that has been remodeled and needs some TLC. This property is conveniently located on Rt. 199 just off of Hwy 119. Close to churches, schools, shopping and medical offices/hospital.

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $29,900 Active 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   Structure is a single wide mobile home that has been remodeled and needs some TLC. This property is conveniently located on Rt. 199 just off of Hwy 119. Close to churches, schools, shopping and medical offices/hospital.

3. 2008-09-29
   soldstatus $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $257 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 42.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $3,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $2,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Belfry

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #17694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 748

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.75%
• Current HPI: 154.8334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-65.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $29,900 EKAR
• 2008-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $180 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.