3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
738 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,774/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,019
Tax + insurance
−$629
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$583
Net cashflow
$-457/mo
Annual
$-5,484/yr
Cap rate
4.87%
Cash-on-cash
-5.09%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$107,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (21.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (27.9% below list).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $277k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $62k; list at $385k implies a 526% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KAHVJAAXP3FF89
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29