37143 N Greythorn Cir

Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,380,000C+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,400 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,237
• Tax + insurance: −$832
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,543
• Net cashflow: $1,373/mo
• Annual: $16,470/yr
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $386,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.38M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.21M (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.21M (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 28354% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.20M; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $386k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$151k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.