37143 N Greythorn Cir · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,380,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2015 0.83 ac lot $406/sqft · 14% below area Est $1608k · 14% under $125/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

Key facts

• Library den office
• Sliding glass wall
• Espresso cabinets

Tags

• LIBRARY DEN OFFICE
• SS APPLIANCES
• ESPRESSO CABINETS
• SPECKLED GRANITE COUNTERS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SLIDING GLASS WALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.38M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.21M (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.21M (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $386k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$151k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 28354% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.20M; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,210,957 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,607,722
• List price: $1,380,000
• Delta: -14.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37095 N Bloody Basin Rd	0.19mi	4/3.0	3,046 (-10%)	6mo	$1,540,000	$506	64
37334 N Winding Wash Trl	0.13mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,741 (+10%)	10mo	$1,800,000	$481	62
37202 N Holiday Ln	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,333 (-2%)	3mo	$2,158,000	$647	62
7780 E Verde Vista Trl	0.19mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,757 (+10%)	7mo	$2,400,000	$639	60
37229 N Winding Wash Trl	0.17mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,952 (-13%)	1mo	$1,650,000	$559	60
37636 N Round Robin Ct	0.67mi	4/4.5	3,383 (-0%)	7mo	$1,340,000	$396	60
36425 N UP & Down Pl	0.35mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,177 (-7%)	10mo	$1,325,000	$417	57
8102 E Serene St	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,291 (-3%)	7mo	$1,258,000	$382	53
7787 E Verde Vista Trl	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,910 (-14%)	7mo	$1,156,250	$397	52
37646 N Dream St	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,972 (-13%)	10mo	$1,385,000	$466	45
38199 N Tranquil Way	0.71mi	4/4.0	3,805 (+12%)	3mo	$2,560,000	$673	45
37021 N Lazy Burro Rd	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,813 (+12%)	3mo	$2,375,000	$623	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $495,980
• Equity at exit: $878,979

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $1,386,363
• Equity at exit: $1,603,967

Cash invested: $386,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,237
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,086/yr
• Insurance: −$575
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,543
• Net cashflow: $1,373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,372

Max offer price $1,380,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,154	-5% $1,763	+0% $1,373	+5% $982	+10% $591
Rent	-10% $416	-5% $894	+0% $1,373	+5% $1,851	+10% $2,329
Rate	-1.0pp $2,068	-0.5pp $1,724	base $1,373	+0.5pp $1,015	+1.0pp $651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $345,000
• Closing costs: $41,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 Ironwood Rd Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3930	$13,400	$3.41	44d	1	0.80mi
1063 N Boulder Dr Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3035	$12,000	$3.95	44d	1	0.85mi
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	44d	1	0.86mi
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	44d	1	0.91mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	44d	1	1.06mi
6945 E Stevens Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	4.0	3583	$12,000	$3.35	44d	1	1.12mi
3105 Arroyo Hondo Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3156	$19,000	$6.02	0d	1	1.18mi
1613 N Quartz Valley Ct Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2831	$12,000	$4.24	44d	1	1.29mi
7723 E Cassia Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3540	$10,000	$2.82	44d	1	1.41mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $1,380,000 Pending 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 97 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,380,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

14. 2026-04-01
    price $1,380,000 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

15. 2026-03-21
    price $1,420,000 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

16. 2026-03-13
    price $1,470,000 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

17. 2026-03-06
    price $1,500,000 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

18. 2026-03-01
    historical $4,850
19. 2026-02-24
    listed $4,850

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

20. 2026-02-24
    listed $1,525,000 Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Wow! Views! Very rare opportunity to own in The Reserve at Tranquil Trail. This spectacular 4 bed, 2.5 bath home sits on an oversized corner lot with impressive desert landscaping & 3 car garage. Stunning interior boasts a library/den/office, bright & inviting living room and dining area. The fabulous kitchen offers SS appliances, espresso cabinets, speckled granite counters, island, and breakfast bar. The primary bedroom retreat has a sliding glass wall that seamlessly connects to the outdoors and a luxurious ensuite with his & her sinks, soaking tub and a bountiful walk-in closet. Stunning backyard offers super private, quiet & secluded patio & a new contemporary pool and spa, built-in grill. True entertainers dream! Walking distance to Carefree shops and restaurants. A must see!!

21. 2026-01-18
    historical $4,850
22. 2026-01-17
    historical
23. 2026-01-16
    listed $4,850
24. 2026-01-02
    price $1,419,000
25. 2025-12-03
    status Active
26. 2025-12-03
    historical
27. 2025-11-10
    price $1,449,000
28. 2025-10-24
    price $1,499,000
29. 2025-10-04
    price $1,570,000
30. 2025-08-28
    price $1,600,000
31. 2024-10-01
    listed $1,650,000 Active
32. 2021-05-06
    soldstatus $1,200,000 Closed
33. 2021-05-06
    soldstatus $1,200,000
34. 2021-04-18
    status Pending
35. 2021-03-30
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
36. 2021-03-24
    listed $1,200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,086 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,108 · $759/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,022/yr (+$502/mo · 195.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $145,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$77,301
• − Property taxes: −$3,086
• − Insurance: −$6,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,625
• − Management: −$11,625
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$40,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $18,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+15.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $1,380,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $1,420,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $1,470,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $1,500,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Rental Removed $4,850 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed for Rent $4,850 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $1,525,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Rental Removed $4,850 ARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed for Rent $4,850 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $1,419,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $1,449,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $1,499,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $1,570,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $1,600,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listed $1,650,000 ARMLS
• 2021-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $1,200,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-06 Sold (MLS) $1,200,000 ARMLS
• 2021-04-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-03-30 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-03-24 Listed $1,200,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,086 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.