287 Johnson Ave Unit B

The College of New Jersey, NJ 08648

$439,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$732
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,022
• Net cashflow: $813/mo
• Annual: $9,752/yr
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.93%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $439k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $813 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $406/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $439k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $413k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.4% in The College of New Jersey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,869/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($126k/yr) (locally 724% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Landscaping — The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.
• Major: Fencing — The fencing appears to be in poor condition and in need of repair or replacement.