287 Johnson Ave Unit B · The College of New Jersey, NJ 08648

$439,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · MultiFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1950 Average condition 0.28 ac lot $249/sqft · 7% below area Est $470k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Duplex on large lot in a quiet residential neighborhood, across from lovely bike and walking trail. First floor rental currently rented as 3-bedroom 1 bath Large apartment with Many updates. Second floor apartment currently vacant as 2-bedroom 1 bath apartment. Parking on site for 6+ cars. Convenient to shopping, Universities, schools, houses of worship, and major roads, 206, I-95and I-295. Newer Roof and updates.

Key facts

• Updates
• Large lot
• Parking on site

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD
• BIKE AND WALKING TRAIL
• UPDATES
• PARKING ON SITE
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $439k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $813 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $406/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $439k).
• Recommended offer: $413k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.4% in The College of New Jersey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,869/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($126k/yr) (locally 724% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $412,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.93%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $469,851
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: -6.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-33,573
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-17,431
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$549 /mo · $6,585/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,022
• Net cashflow: $813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,840

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 78%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,868
Total (2 units)			$4,869

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
383 Johnson Ave Lawrenceville, NJ	4.0	2.0	1605	$3,200	$1.99	14d	1	0.23mi
1000 Stewards Crossing Way Trenton, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$3,193	$3.28	14d	10	0.60mi
117 Browning Ave Ewing, NJ	5.0	2.0	1584	$3,500	$2.21	21d	1	1.28mi
11 Whitemarsh Dr Lawrence Township, NJ	4.0	2.5	2062	$4,300	$2.09	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-23
   listed $439,000 Active 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   Duplex on large lot in a quiet residential neighborhood, across from lovely bike and walking trail. First floor rental currently rented as 3-bedroom 1 bath Large apartment with Many updates. Second floor apartment currently vacant as 2-bedroom 1 bath apartment. Parking on site for 6+ cars. Convenient to shopping, Universities, schools, houses of worship, and major roads, 206, I-95and I-295. Newer Roof and updates.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,585
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,674
• − Management: −$4,674
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable income: $2,938
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$705
• After-tax cash flow: $9,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in average condition with some repairs and maintenance needed, including painting, landscaping, and fencing repair. The property has a good location and is currently rented as a 3-bedroom 1 bath apartment and a 2-bedroom 1 bath apartment.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.
• Major Fencing — The fencing appears to be in poor condition and in need of repair or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can improve the curb appeal and overall condition of the property, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping and fencing repair — Landscaping and fencing repair can improve the curb appeal and overall condition of the property, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · The fencing appears to be in poor condition and in need of repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can improve the curb appeal and overall condition of the property, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing repair — Landscaping and fencing repair can improve the curb appeal and overall condition of the property, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — The College of New Jersey

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $439,000 MOMLS