3228 Broken Arrow Rd

Borrego Springs, CA 92004

$475,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$536
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $923/mo
• Annual: $11,077/yr
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $923 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#712 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Borrego Springs Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,120 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; list at $475k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 11→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.0% in Borrego Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.