9615 Hunters Run Dr

Sienna, TX 77459

$549,000D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,147 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,309/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax + insurance: −$1,686
• HOA: −$132
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $-503/mo
• Annual: $-6,031/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $153,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $549k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $460k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,309/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.