9615 Hunters Run Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$549,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2023 9,073 sqft lot Est $563k · at est. $132/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Shea Homes, Plan 5029, 4-sided brick with stone accents at front. This prize-winning single story home is designed with an open concept that offers so much natural light. This home has 4 bedrooms, study, flex room, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 3 car garage. The unique feature of this home is a "wing" with 2 bedrooms, a flex room and bath, perfect for children or parents. The kitchen has an upgraded appliance package with double ovens & 5 burner gas cooktop, granite countertops, oversized walk-in pantry, and lots of cabinet space. The spacious kitchen opens to the Great Room and Casual Dining, which has a stacking slider door connected to your oversized covered outdoor living. The primary bedroom has a bay window, tray ceiling, and a door connecting the primary walk-in closet to the laundry room. The guest bedroom ensuite has a mudset shower. This highly upgraded home is bright, spacious and professionally designed. Come live the difference in this gorgeous Shea Home!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Private guest wing
• 9,073 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE GUEST WING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN PANTRY
• STACKING SLIDER DOORS
• OVERSIZED COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association pool; Community features include curbs and gutters
• HOA & community: Association: SPRIA; Annual association fee of $1,580; Association covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playground, dog park, trails, parks, picnic areas, meeting/party room, basketball and sport courts, pickleball, tennis courts, and golf course/lake or pond

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Three garage spaces; Driveway parking
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2023; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Faces southwest; Full ownership
• Construction: Builder: Shea Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck/patio area; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Private yard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Paved driveway; Patio; Tennis court(s) on property; Pond on lot; Near golf course; Subdivision location; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Three additional bedrooms on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bath with separate shower and soaking tub; Double vanities
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Zoned heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Walk-in pantry; Wired for sound; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $460k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,309/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,219 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $563,313
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9710 Falling Leaf Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	3,297 (+5%)	2mo	$595,000	$180	86
1435 Columbia Grove Dr	0.33mi	4/3.5	3,076 (-2%)	3mo	$660,000	$215	78
1403 Columbia Grove Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	3,076 (-2%)	7mo	$600,000	$195	77
1207 Morning Rose Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5	3,361 (+7%)	2mo	$600,000	$179	76
9918 Hunters Run Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	3,350 (+6%)	2mo	$550,000	$164	75
1206 Berry Brook Dr	0.34mi	4/3.5	3,116 (-1%)	9mo	$604,990	$194	75
9715 Hunters Run Dr	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,814 (-11%)	8mo	$599,990	$213	71
1422 Sunrise View Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	3,078 (-2%)	5mo	$549,000	$178	60
1506 Country Air Ln	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,808 (-11%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	56
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,763 (-12%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	46
1722 Country Air Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,773 (-12%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	44
1706 Country Air Ln	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,700 (-14%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-104,607
• Equity at exit: $115,141

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-161,467
• Equity at exit: $106,649

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$1,457 /mo · $17,481/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,945

Max offer price $460,219

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	2d	1	0.76mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	21d	1	0.88mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $549,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $549,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $549,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $549,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $549,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-27
    listed $549,000 Active
15. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus Sold 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Shea Homes, Plan 5029, 4-sided brick with stone accents at front. This prize-winning single story home is designed with an open concept that offers so much natural light. This home has 4 bedrooms, study, flex room, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 3 car garage. The unique feature of this home is a "wing" with 2 bedrooms, a flex room and bath, perfect for children or parents. The kitchen has an upgraded appliance package with double ovens & 5 burner gas cooktop, granite countertops, oversized walk-in pantry, and lots of cabinet space. The spacious kitchen opens to the Great Room and Casual Dining, which has a stacking slider door connected to your oversized covered outdoor living. The primary bedroom has a bay window, tray ceiling, and a door connecting the primary walk-in closet to the laundry room. The guest bedroom ensuite has a mudset shower. This highly upgraded home is bright, spacious and professionally designed. Come live the difference in this gorgeous Shea Home!

16. 2023-09-08
    status Pending 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Shea Homes, Plan 5029, 4-sided brick with stone accents at front. This prize-winning single story home is designed with an open concept that offers so much natural light. This home has 4 bedrooms, study, flex room, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 3 car garage. The unique feature of this home is a "wing" with 2 bedrooms, a flex room and bath, perfect for children or parents. The kitchen has an upgraded appliance package with double ovens & 5 burner gas cooktop, granite countertops, oversized walk-in pantry, and lots of cabinet space. The spacious kitchen opens to the Great Room and Casual Dining, which has a stacking slider door connected to your oversized covered outdoor living. The primary bedroom has a bay window, tray ceiling, and a door connecting the primary walk-in closet to the laundry room. The guest bedroom ensuite has a mudset shower. This highly upgraded home is bright, spacious and professionally designed. Come live the difference in this gorgeous Shea Home!

17. 2023-07-19
    price $619,990 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Shea Homes, Plan 5029, 4-sided brick with stone accents at front. This prize-winning single story home is designed with an open concept that offers so much natural light. This home has 4 bedrooms, study, flex room, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 3 car garage. The unique feature of this home is a "wing" with 2 bedrooms, a flex room and bath, perfect for children or parents. The kitchen has an upgraded appliance package with double ovens & 5 burner gas cooktop, granite countertops, oversized walk-in pantry, and lots of cabinet space. The spacious kitchen opens to the Great Room and Casual Dining, which has a stacking slider door connected to your oversized covered outdoor living. The primary bedroom has a bay window, tray ceiling, and a door connecting the primary walk-in closet to the laundry room. The guest bedroom ensuite has a mudset shower. This highly upgraded home is bright, spacious and professionally designed. Come live the difference in this gorgeous Shea Home!

18. 2023-06-20
    price $643,373 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Shea Homes, Plan 5029, 4-sided brick with stone accents at front. This prize-winning single story home is designed with an open concept that offers so much natural light. This home has 4 bedrooms, study, flex room, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 3 car garage. The unique feature of this home is a "wing" with 2 bedrooms, a flex room and bath, perfect for children or parents. The kitchen has an upgraded appliance package with double ovens & 5 burner gas cooktop, granite countertops, oversized walk-in pantry, and lots of cabinet space. The spacious kitchen opens to the Great Room and Casual Dining, which has a stacking slider door connected to your oversized covered outdoor living. The primary bedroom has a bay window, tray ceiling, and a door connecting the primary walk-in closet to the laundry room. The guest bedroom ensuite has a mudset shower. This highly upgraded home is bright, spacious and professionally designed. Come live the difference in this gorgeous Shea Home!

19. 2023-04-25
    listed $645,538 Active 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Shea Homes, Plan 5029, 4-sided brick with stone accents at front. This prize-winning single story home is designed with an open concept that offers so much natural light. This home has 4 bedrooms, study, flex room, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 3 car garage. The unique feature of this home is a "wing" with 2 bedrooms, a flex room and bath, perfect for children or parents. The kitchen has an upgraded appliance package with double ovens & 5 burner gas cooktop, granite countertops, oversized walk-in pantry, and lots of cabinet space. The spacious kitchen opens to the Great Room and Casual Dining, which has a stacking slider door connected to your oversized covered outdoor living. The primary bedroom has a bay window, tray ceiling, and a door connecting the primary walk-in closet to the laundry room. The guest bedroom ensuite has a mudset shower. This highly upgraded home is bright, spacious and professionally designed. Come live the difference in this gorgeous Shea Home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $17,481 · $1,457/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,481 · $1,457/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$17,481
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,096
• − Management: −$5,096
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$15,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,605
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $549,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-19 Price Changed $619,990 HARMLS
• 2023-06-20 Price Changed $643,373 HARMLS
• 2023-04-25 Listed $645,538 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,481 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.