11103 Thornberry Dr

Freeland, MI 48623

$309,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,739 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $526/mo
• Annual: $6,318/yr
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.30%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (2.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $300k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#230 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Freeland Community School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #46 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.