11103 Thornberry Dr · Freeland, MI 48623

$309,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1997 0.26 ac lot Est $301k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 11103 Thornberry in Freeland, located in a popular subdivision and truly move-in ready. Inside, the home is tastefully decorated and offers a comfortable layout with three full bathrooms on the first level, which includes a spacious primary en suite featuring a large walk-in closet. The fourth bedroom located on the lower level has an egress window and a full bath on the same level. The living room has a cathedral ceiling making it feel even more spacious. Sliding glass doors open onto a lovely fenced backyard featuring a hot tub and gazebo. These features are perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Recent updates include new roof and gutters, new light fixtures, new ceiling fans, a new water heater, and all new appliances. You’ll also appreciate the convenience of laundry hookups on both the main floor and in the basement, along with a 2.5-car garage for extra storage.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Gazebo
• Cathedral ceiling

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• HOT TUB
• GAZEBO
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• PRIMARY EN SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Freeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#230 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Freeland Community School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #46 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $300,000 (2.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.30%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,847
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11050 Wilkinson Rd	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,704 (-2%)	2mo	$329,000	$193	86
11216 Thornberry Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,784 (+3%)	6mo	$350,000	$196	78
11167 Thornberry Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,884 (+8%)	20mo	$307,500	$163	66
7830 Mielke Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+4%)	23mo	$225,000	$125	46
S Valley Spring Ln	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,857 (+7%)	18mo	$539,960	$291	44
273 Church St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-10%)	9mo	$215,900	$138	40
11681 Magnolia Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,936 (+11%)	22mo	$335,000	$173	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-16,674
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $28,114
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48623

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,334

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $701	-5% $614	+0% $526	+5% $439	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $289	-5% $408	+0% $526	+5% $645	+10% $763
Rate	-1.0pp $682	-0.5pp $605	base $526	+0.5pp $446	+1.0pp $365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8441 Cottonwood Dr Freeland, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,000	$1.88	44d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-09
   soldstatus $305,000
2. 2026-01-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Welcome to 11103 Thornberry in Freeland, located in a popular subdivision and truly move-in ready. Inside, the home is tastefully decorated and offers a comfortable layout with three full bathrooms on the first level, which includes a spacious primary en suite featuring a large walk-in closet. The fourth bedroom located on the lower level has an egress window and a full bath on the same level. The living room has a cathedral ceiling making it feel even more spacious. Sliding glass doors open onto a lovely fenced backyard featuring a hot tub and gazebo. These features are perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Recent updates include new roof and gutters, new light fixtures, new ceiling fans, a new water heater, and all new appliances. You’ll also appreciate the convenience of laundry hookups on both the main floor and in the basement, along with a 2.5-car garage for extra storage.

3. 2026-01-27
   status Pending 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Welcome to 11103 Thornberry in Freeland, located in a popular subdivision and truly move-in ready. Inside, the home is tastefully decorated and offers a comfortable layout with three full bathrooms on the first level, which includes a spacious primary en suite featuring a large walk-in closet. The fourth bedroom located on the lower level has an egress window and a full bath on the same level. The living room has a cathedral ceiling making it feel even more spacious. Sliding glass doors open onto a lovely fenced backyard featuring a hot tub and gazebo. These features are perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Recent updates include new roof and gutters, new light fixtures, new ceiling fans, a new water heater, and all new appliances. You’ll also appreciate the convenience of laundry hookups on both the main floor and in the basement, along with a 2.5-car garage for extra storage.

4. 2026-01-20
   listed $309,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Welcome to 11103 Thornberry in Freeland, located in a popular subdivision and truly move-in ready. Inside, the home is tastefully decorated and offers a comfortable layout with three full bathrooms on the first level, which includes a spacious primary en suite featuring a large walk-in closet. The fourth bedroom located on the lower level has an egress window and a full bath on the same level. The living room has a cathedral ceiling making it feel even more spacious. Sliding glass doors open onto a lovely fenced backyard featuring a hot tub and gazebo. These features are perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Recent updates include new roof and gutters, new light fixtures, new ceiling fans, a new water heater, and all new appliances. You’ll also appreciate the convenience of laundry hookups on both the main floor and in the basement, along with a 2.5-car garage for extra storage.

5. 2026-01-20
   listed $309,000 Active 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Welcome to 11103 Thornberry in Freeland, located in a popular subdivision and truly move-in ready. Inside, the home is tastefully decorated and offers a comfortable layout with three full bathrooms on the first level, which includes a spacious primary en suite featuring a large walk-in closet. The fourth bedroom located on the lower level has an egress window and a full bath on the same level. The living room has a cathedral ceiling making it feel even more spacious. Sliding glass doors open onto a lovely fenced backyard featuring a hot tub and gazebo. These features are perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Recent updates include new roof and gutters, new light fixtures, new ceiling fans, a new water heater, and all new appliances. You’ll also appreciate the convenience of laundry hookups on both the main floor and in the basement, along with a 2.5-car garage for extra storage.

6. 2021-05-14
   soldstatus $205,000
7. 2021-05-12
   soldstatus $205,000 Sold 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   SHOWINGS ONLY SUNDAY 3/28 FROM 12:00PM-6:00PM AND MONDAY FROM 11:00AM-6:00PM. 4 bedroom home in Freeland Schools! This home features 1308 square feet including 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and first floor laundry. Below is a full finished basement with a second laundry space, family room, and home office. Updates include paint throughout, new range/oven, new sump pump, and new bathroom flooring. Call for your private showing today!

8. 2021-05-12
   soldstatus $205,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   SHOWINGS ONLY SUNDAY 3/28 FROM 12:00PM-6:00PM AND MONDAY FROM 11:00AM-6:00PM. 4 bedroom home in Freeland Schools! This home features 1308 square feet including 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and first floor laundry. Below is a full finished basement with a second laundry space, family room, and home office. Updates include paint throughout, new range/oven, new sump pump, and new bathroom flooring. Call for your private showing today!

9. 2021-03-29
   status Pending 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   SHOWINGS ONLY SUNDAY 3/28 FROM 12:00PM-6:00PM AND MONDAY FROM 11:00AM-6:00PM. 4 bedroom home in Freeland Schools! This home features 1308 square feet including 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and first floor laundry. Below is a full finished basement with a second laundry space, family room, and home office. Updates include paint throughout, new range/oven, new sump pump, and new bathroom flooring. Call for your private showing today!

10. 2021-03-29
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    SHOWINGS ONLY SUNDAY 3/28 FROM 12:00PM-6:00PM AND MONDAY FROM 11:00AM-6:00PM. 4 bedroom home in Freeland Schools! This home features 1308 square feet including 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and first floor laundry. Below is a full finished basement with a second laundry space, family room, and home office. Updates include paint throughout, new range/oven, new sump pump, and new bathroom flooring. Call for your private showing today!

11. 2021-03-27
    listed $200,000 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    SHOWINGS ONLY SUNDAY 3/28 FROM 12:00PM-6:00PM AND MONDAY FROM 11:00AM-6:00PM. 4 bedroom home in Freeland Schools! This home features 1308 square feet including 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and first floor laundry. Below is a full finished basement with a second laundry space, family room, and home office. Updates include paint throughout, new range/oven, new sump pump, and new bathroom flooring. Call for your private showing today!

12. 2021-03-27
    listed $200,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    SHOWINGS ONLY SUNDAY 3/28 FROM 12:00PM-6:00PM AND MONDAY FROM 11:00AM-6:00PM. 4 bedroom home in Freeland Schools! This home features 1308 square feet including 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and first floor laundry. Below is a full finished basement with a second laundry space, family room, and home office. Updates include paint throughout, new range/oven, new sump pump, and new bathroom flooring. Call for your private showing today!

13. 2014-01-02
    historical
14. 2013-11-06
    historical
15. 2013-07-02
    listed $169,900
16. 2013-07-02
    listed $169,900
17. 2002-07-14
    historical
18. 2002-07-14
    historical
19. 2002-04-14
    listed $159,900
20. 2002-04-14
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,945 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,813/yr (+$151/mo · 160.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable income: $1,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$304
• After-tax cash flow: $6,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freeland Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2615060
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,875
• Composite: 50.98/100
• National rank: #1779
• State rank: #46 of 540 in MI

Livability — Freeland

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #5824

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeland, MI
• City population: 15,126
• Population (ZIP): 15,126

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.02%
• Current HPI: 213.8908
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+90.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $309,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $309,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-12 Sold (MLS) $205,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (MLS) $205,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-03-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-03-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-27 Listed $200,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-27 Listed $200,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-01-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-11-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2013-07-02 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2013-07-02 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-07-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-07-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-04-14 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-04-14 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,132 · -71.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.