None bd · None ba ·
1,896 sqft ·
Built 2006
· Condo
· Pending
· 254 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,406/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,185
Tax + insurance
−$377
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$295
Net cashflow
$-451/mo
Annual
$-5,417/yr
Cap rate
3.90%
Cash-on-cash
-8.56%
DSCR
0.62
1% rule
0.62%
Cash to close
$63,280
Investor read
This is a condo listed at $226k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (28.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (37.8% below list).
It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,440 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Landscaping
— Overgrown vegetation and unkempt lawn need significant attention.