927 Petunia Falls Ln

Rosharon, TX 77583

$252,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,398/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,324
• Tax + insurance: −$716
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-192/mo
• Annual: $-2,304/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $70,700

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (5.0% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.