927 Petunia Falls Ln · Rosharon, TX 77583

$252,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,242 sqft lot 2-car garage $156/sqft · 7% below area Est $271k · 7% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful single-story home offering a functional layout, spacious living areas, and thoughtful updates throughout. The home features granite countertops, a kitchen island, gas cooking, and an open flow ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private ensuite bath with double sinks and a walk-in shower. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized, and the home offers a great balance of comfort and practicality. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• 6,242 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,589 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,079
• List price: $252,500
• Delta: -6.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
910 Betsy Hill Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (+2%)	0mo	$254,990	$155	88
8223 Hush Heights Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	6mo	$230,000	$147	86
826 Green Clover Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+0%)	7mo	$250,000	$154	83
8210 Brahman Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,669 (+3%)	1mo	$279,000	$167	83
810 Orchard Vale Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	1mo	$306,240	$194	74
1219 Minerals Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	6mo	$269,000	$171	72
8743 Mallow Rose Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	3mo	$298,990	$189	68
8219 Oakleaf Meadow Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-6%)	7mo	$249,900	$164	67
626 Urban Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-1%)	5mo	$280,000	$174	64
831 Petunia Falls Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+14%)	6mo	$269,900	$147	64
502 Poppy Field Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+14%)	2mo	$275,000	$150	50
1103 Curly Angora Ct	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+10%)	5mo	$285,000	$160	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-58,918
• Equity at exit: $37,649

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-89,525
• Equity at exit: $21,832

Cash invested: $70,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,750 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1736
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,324
• Tax from tax record: −$611 /mo · $7,328/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $218,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-120	+0% $-192	+5% $-263	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-287	+0% $-192	+5% $-97	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-128	base $-192	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,125
• Closing costs: $7,575
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8419 Ideal Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,125	$1.16	24d	1	0.21mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	118d	1	0.26mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	139d	1	0.29mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,830	$1.54	59d	1	0.32mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	139d	1	0.34mi
7915 Murciana Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,400	$1.17	11d	1	0.40mi
7731 Suffolk Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,500	$1.36	11d	1	0.53mi
423 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,879	$1.37	4d	1	0.54mi
407 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,195	$1.29	64d	1	0.57mi
8223 Wainwright Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2172	$2,340	$1.08	42d	1	0.59mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	139d	1	0.60mi
1107 Curly Angora Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2061	$2,400	$1.16	40d	1	0.65mi
8722 Dairy Farm Trl Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$2,295	$1.08	18d	1	0.90mi
7215 Victorville Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2152	$2,326	$1.08	5d	1	1.04mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	139d	1	1.05mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	109d	1	1.27mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	109d	1	1.33mi
1214 Emerald Stone Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$1,980	$1.07	18d	1	1.36mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,051	$1.10	28d	1	1.38mi
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,970	$1.12	18d	1	1.39mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	139d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southern Colony HOA with annual feeCommunity amenities include a dog park and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with automatic garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces southSingle-story main living (all bedrooms down)
• Construction: Built in 2020Brick and vinyl siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatio and deckFenced backyardSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandGranite countertopsPantryWalk-in pantryKitchen/family and kitchen/dining combos
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 9)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 9)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate plankVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsPrimary bathroom on the first floor (16 x 8)Bathroom on the first floor (8 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: All bedrooms on the main levelDouble vanities in bathroomsEn suite bathroomGranite countertopsKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboMain-level primary bedroomPantryTub/shower combinationWalk-in pantryWalk-in closetsCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboLiving and dining room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater softener (owned)Tankless water heaterReverse osmosis system

HOA detail $46/mo · $552/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $252,500 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $252,500 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $252,500 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $252,500 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $252,500 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $252,500 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $252,500 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $252,500 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $252,500 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $252,500 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $252,500 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $252,500 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $252,500 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $252,500 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $252,500 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $252,500 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $252,500 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $252,500 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $252,500 Active 3 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $252,500 Active 2 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    remarks 591-char remark
22. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on marketlisting id $252,500 Active 1 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $255,000 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $255,000 Active 103 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $255,000 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $255,000 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $255,000 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $255,000 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $255,000 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $255,000 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $255,000 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $255,000 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $255,000 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $255,000 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $255,000 Active 92 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $255,000 Active 91 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $255,000 Active 90 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $255,000 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $255,000 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 86 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 83 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 82 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 81 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 78 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $255,000 Active 73 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,328 · $611/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,328 · $611/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,144
• − Property taxes: −$7,328
• − Insurance: −$1,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,302
• − Management: −$2,302
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,345
• Taxable loss: −$6,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,075–$24,225 screening

This single-story home offers a functional layout with good condition and thoughtful updates. It is move-in ready with a good balance of comfort and practicality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southern Colony HOA with annual feeCommunity amenities include a dog park and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with automatic garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces southSingle-story main living (all bedrooms down)
• Construction: Built in 2020Brick and vinyl siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatio and deckFenced backyardSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandGranite countertopsPantryWalk-in pantryKitchen/family and kitchen/dining combos
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 9)Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 9)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate plankVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsPrimary bathroom on the first floor (16 x 8)Bathroom on the first floor (8 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: All bedrooms on the main levelDouble vanities in bathroomsEn suite bathroomGranite countertopsKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboMain-level primary bedroomPantryTub/shower combinationWalk-in pantryWalk-in closetsCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboLiving and dining room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater softener (owned)Tankless water heaterReverse osmosis system

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-08-27 Listed $252,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+50.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,328 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.