927 Petunia Falls Ln · Rosharon, TX 77583

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,242 sqft lot 2-car garage $158/sqft · 8% below area Est $276k · 8% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,242 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,658 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,860
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -7.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8223 Hush Heights Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	4mo	$230,000	$147	88
826 Green Clover Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+0%)	6mo	$250,000	$154	85
1219 Minerals Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	4mo	$269,000	$171	73
8743 Mallow Rose Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	1mo	$298,990	$189	69
8219 Oakleaf Meadow Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-6%)	5mo	$249,900	$164	68
626 Urban Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-1%)	3mo	$280,000	$174	65
831 Petunia Falls Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+14%)	4mo	$269,900	$147	65
8107 Precious Passing Way	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+12%)	6mo	$263,000	$146	62
8219 Molasses Way	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,839 (+14%)	6mo	$268,000	$146	60
502 Poppy Field Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+14%)	1mo	$275,000	$150	51
1103 Curly Angora Ct	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+10%)	3mo	$285,000	$160	44
207 Ashley Falls Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+14%)	6mo	$260,000	$142	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-60,576
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-92,621
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,450 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$623 /mo · $7,472/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,674

Max offer price $217,658

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-139	+0% $-211	+5% $-284	+10% $-356
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-306	+0% $-211	+5% $-116	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-147	base $-211	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	71d	1	0.26mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	93d	1	0.29mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,830	$1.54	12d	1	0.32mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	93d	1	0.34mi
407 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,195	$1.29	17d	1	0.57mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	93d	1	0.60mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	93d	1	1.05mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	62d	1	1.27mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	62d	1	1.33mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	1.38mi
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,070	$1.17	12d	1	1.39mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	93d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southern Colony HOAHOA amenities include a dog park and playgroundAnnual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces southBuilt in 2020Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFenced backyardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandPantryWalk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x12)Bedroom on the first floor (11x9)Bedroom on the first floor (11x9)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminatePlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom on the first floor (16x8)Bathroom on the first floor (8x6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHas heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryWalk-in pantryTub with showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomReverse osmosis system
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater softener (owned)Tankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $255,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $255,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $255,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $255,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $255,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $255,000 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $255,000 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $255,000 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,000 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $255,000 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $255,000 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $255,000 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $255,000 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $255,000 Active 39 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $255,000 Active 38 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $255,000 Active 35 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $255,000 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 26 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 25 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 24 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,472 · $623/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,472 · $623/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$7,472
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,310
• − Management: −$2,310
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$6,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,075–$24,225 screening

This single-story home offers a functional layout with good condition and thoughtful updates. It is move-in ready with a good balance of comfort and practicality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southern Colony HOAHOA amenities include a dog park and playgroundAnnual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces southBuilt in 2020Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFenced backyardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandPantryWalk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x12)Bedroom on the first floor (11x9)Bedroom on the first floor (11x9)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminatePlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom on the first floor (16x8)Bathroom on the first floor (8x6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHas heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryWalk-in pantryTub with showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomReverse osmosis system
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWater softener (owned)Tankless water heater

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $255,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+63.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,472 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.