927 Petunia Falls Ln · Alvin, TX 77583

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,242 sqft lot $158/sqft · 8% below area Est $276k · 8% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,242 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southern Colony HOA; HOA amenities include a dog park and playground; Annual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2020; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x12); Bedroom on the first floor (11x9); Bedroom on the first floor (11x9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor (16x8); Bathroom on the first floor (8x6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Reverse osmosis system
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water softener (owned); Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,264 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,750
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -7.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8223 Hush Heights Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	3mo	$230,000	$147	89
826 Green Clover Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+0%)	4mo	$250,000	$154	86
1219 Minerals Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	3mo	$269,000	$171	74
8219 Oakleaf Meadow Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-6%)	4mo	$249,900	$164	70
626 Urban Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-1%)	2mo	$280,000	$174	67
831 Petunia Falls Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+14%)	2mo	$269,900	$147	66
8107 Precious Passing Way	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+12%)	4mo	$263,000	$146	63
8219 Molasses Way	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,839 (+14%)	4mo	$268,000	$146	62
8018 Buck Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-13%)	6mo	$269,990	$192	56
1103 Curly Angora Ct	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+10%)	2mo	$285,000	$160	45
7707 Smooth Vly	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+11%)	5mo	$338,238	$188	38
207 Ashley Falls Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+14%)	4mo	$260,000	$142	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-60,368
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-92,201
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$623 /mo · $7,472/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,674

Max offer price $218,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-136	+0% $-208	+5% $-280	+10% $-352
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-303	+0% $-208	+5% $-113	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-143	base $-208	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	23d	1	0.26mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	0.29mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	45d	1	0.34mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	45d	1	0.60mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	45d	1	1.05mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	14d	1	1.27mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	14d	1	1.33mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $255,000 Active 591-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    historical $255,000 591-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,472 · $623/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,472 · $623/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$7,472
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$6,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $-886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home offers a functional layout with good condition and thoughtful updates. It is move-in ready with a good balance of comfort and practicality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $255,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+63.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,472 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.